Mortgage Prepayment Behavior
According to the US Census Bureau, homeownership rates peaked during the first quarter of 2005 at 69.1% but fell to just 63.8% in the fourth quarter of 2015, a year when residential mortgage debt outstanding was still above ten trillion-dollar mark and mortgage origination was about $1.7T. Mortgage Back Security (MBS) originations have continued to experience a steady growth attracting investors, servicers, insurers, lenders, and GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises). In contrary, MBS market presented various financial risks including prepayment from the homeowners - be that voluntary or involuntary.
To manage the risks presented by the borrowers, modeling prepayment behavior is critical in the work banks do. Four fundamental components of mortgage prepayment activity will be examined in this presentation.