Extrapolative Expectations, Financial Frictions, and Asset Prices

Yao Deng
University of Minnesota
Friday, November 1, 2019 - 5:30pm to 6:30pm
Vincent Hall 16

  I study how extrapolative expectations affect corporate real and financial activities and asset prices. Empirically, high misperception on earnings growth, a measure constructed to proxy for extrapolation, is associated with an increase in investment, debt issuance, equity issuance, and firm-level bond and stock prices in the short-term, but predicts a decline in all these activities and prices in the long-term. These patterns are more pronounced among small and financially constrained firms. Theoretically, I build a dynamic model with extrapolative expectations and financial frictions, and show that the interaction of these two frictions is crucial to explain the empirical findings. Intuitively, after a sequence of favorable shocks, agents extrapolate and become overoptimistic about future productivities. Firms invest and borrow more in the short-term. Lower perceived default probability improves financing conditions, further increasing investment and borrowing. Future realizations turn out worse than expected, making real and financial activities and asset prices subject to predictable reversals in the long-term.Bio: https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/faculty/yao-deng